Thursday, 24 August 2017 03:33

Mayweather – McGregor

Floyd Mayweather and Conor McGregor will square off in what is set to be the one of the biggest circus fights ever to take place, an exhibition money – grabbing match to be played after boxing rules at the Welterweight division.

Floyd Mayweather (49-0-0, 26 KO) will attempt to go 50-0 after he came out of retirement in order to cash in a big check in this fight against McGregor. Mayweather’s last bout was back in September 2015, when he easily won a unanimous decision against Andre Berto, after previously defeating Manny Pacquiao in pretty convincing fashion.

Conor McGregor (0-0-0 in Boxing; 21-3, 19 KO in MMA) will make his professional boxing debut in this match against Floyd Mayweather, agreeing to fight with boxing rules due to being offered by far the biggest payday of his career. Conor’s last MMA fight was back in November last year, when he won the UFC Lightweight championship against Eddie Alvarez.

The 40 year old Mayweather stands at 173 cm with a reach of 183 cm. McGregor stands at 175 cm with a reach of 188 cm. The two fighters will fight with 8oz gloves which is lighter than what Mayweather usually uses. Theoretically this could give McGregor an advantage as he is the harder puncher, but it`s just a marketing strategy to create the ilusion that Conor has a shot. The glove size is actually an advantage for Mayweather, as he will do all the punching.

This fight is so easy and straightforward to predict, that it`s actually pretty hard to analyze and preview. It is common sense that Mayweather is a colossal favorite here, and any kind of analysis seems redundant.

The American is one of the greatest boxers of all time and even if he`s coming back from retirement, he is just 2 years removed from the ring. He was always expected to return for a money fight. As for McGregor, he is a great MMA fighter, but he will make his boxing debut.

There is simply no way that you can come from MMA / UFC and expect to challenge a boxer, let alone one of the best boxers off all time, in a boxing ring Sure, UFC is still fighting, but it is a different sport. Mayweather has tens of years of perfecting his skills and gaining experience, while McGregor is an all around fighter. He is not a boxer and hasn`t fought boxers. He is the best decathlete, but he`s going up against Usain Bolt in the 100m sprint.

Look for Mayweather to have fun here, and he will dictate the outcome. Floyd doesn`t have KO power (his last clean KO or TKO was back in 2007, 10 fights ago), but he should connect so many punches, that McGregor will be steadily broken down. If Mayweather desires, McGregor will probably be stopped by the ref after a few rounds either via a TKO, or due to becoming incapacitated to fight.

There are three ways for Mayweather to lose this fight – if he breaks a leg or both hands (one would probably not be enough), if the fight will be fixed, or if McGregor lands a lucky KO punch.

That KO punch is what all McGregor backers fantasize about, the narative being that Conor is stronger, is a warrior and has an unusual style. But connecting a KO punch isn`t as easy and random as it seems.

Mayweather has fought pure boxers his whole career, many top champions among them, and was never even close to being knocked out. There was only one time when a punch rocked him, against Shane Mosley in 2010 (and he won that fight easily). McGregor’s chances to break Floyd`s defense and connect that miracle blow exists – anything can happen in sports – but it`s about 1 in a million, which hardly resonates with the bookmaker`s odds in this fight.

Fact is, McGregor knows he would need a miracle to win this fight, and his sole focus is on the money. He has never made more than 3 million $ in a fight, and now`s he`s set to go up to 100M $. He is aware that he will lose, and chances are he doesn`t even care, everything else is just talk and trying to hype up the fight in order to increase his revenues.

Betting on Mayweather at odds as high as 1.30 might realistically be one of the biggest value bets of all time. Mayweather would be value at 1.01, let alone at 1.30! Backing Floyd to win is a no brainer and odds are so high only because people are naive, blinded by their hate of Mayweather (McGregor wins the popularity contest by a landslide), or simply want action on the fight and Floyd`s odds are too low for them to bet on.

The bookies opened with odds of about 1.10 for Mayweather (actually an excellent price), but the odds have gone up to 1.30 due to the general public going on Mayweather. According to Vegas statistics, 95% of punters are betting on the Irishman.

This happened because people are naive, blinded by their hate of Mayweather (McGregor wins the popularity contest by a landslide), or simply want action on the fight and Floyd`s odds are too low for them to bet on. The media circus before the fight helped, with McGregor’s trash talk convincing many that he has what it takes.

“The bettors are insistent on wagering on McGregor and aren’t worried about the odds. They’ll stand in line and if the odds drop, they’ll bet him anyway. It’s as if they want to have a ticket and a rooting interest in him, regardless of the price” – Jimmy Vaccaro, South Point Vegas Sportsbook

The greatest challenge is to bet on the fight before the “sharps” move the odds down, because that will happen. Once odds on Mayweather have been pushed high enough by the general public, the high rollers will come in with the big money and odds on Floyd will plummet.

After reaching a peak on Wednesday, odds on Mayweather started going down, so I will not waste any more time and bet on the fight now, Thursday morning. I can`t say for sure that this is the best time to do it, but I surely don`t want to wake up the next day to see odds of 1.15 on Floyd, so I am taking the bet now, even if it`s possible that the price will continue varying. But it`s unlikely Floyd will have odds as high as 1.30 at fight time, so bottom line my recommendation would be to bet as soon as possible.

The obvious bet here is Mayweather to win by KO / TKO / DQ, but this fight is a money grabbing exhibition, so who knows – maybe Floyd wants to toy with McGregor for 12 rounds, or maybe they have an understanding to make it respectable. We know Mayweather will win, so it would be silly to lose money on the fight if the two decide it will be a 12 round circus.

As opposed to betting the handicap, I will do something I have never done before (and probably never will again), and invest 25 units on the Mayweather straight win. This way, we also avoid losing if for example one of the fighter is injured after an accidental event (ex: headbutt) – a case in which the judges scorecards at that point are taken.

My tip is Floyd Mayweather to win with 25 units, and I highly recommend registering with our friends at Ohmbet to get odds 1.40 on this bet. While I generally avoid posting my odds with a bookie that is way above the market, because I know many people can`t bet there, and because the price usually drops, this time I will post with these odds from Ohmbet, because I trust them and specifically recommend them for this bet. The second best price is 1.30 at MyBet, so the difference is massive. Congrats Ohmbet for this one and hope you keep the odds up.

I think the very high stakes are worth it given the fact that this is a once in a lifetime situation. Note that anything can happen in sports, and my unique 25 units stake doesn`t mean you should bet all your bankroll, I am definitely not recommending that. For me, 25 units represents about 1/2 of my bankroll, and it`s a risk I personally take upon myself. Prediction: Floyd Mayweather vs. Conor McGregor – Mayweather wins by TKO in the 3rd round.

Pick: Mayweather
Odds: 1.40 @ Ohmbet
Stake: 25
Possible profit: 10
Event date: 27 August